It seems like it is a recurring, and more frequent scenario: water seeping through closed doors, storm drains not working as they should as flood waters take over streets in New York City and its surrounding areas.
It turns out that the reason why it seems like these severe weather events are more frequent is because they are.
Coastal flooding is increasing and along with it the impacts associated are also provoking a greater impact in the region.
The New York Department of Environmental Conservation notes that “increased precipitation through more frequent and intense rain events is impacting New York by increasing flooding throughout many parts of the state.”
Climate change plays a role in these ocurrance. Scientists know that rising global temperatures are making heavy downpours more likely, according to the journal Scientific American.
The study published in Science Advances, identified New York City among the coastal cities with a high flood risk. The other cities at high or very flood risk, according to the study in Scientific American are:
- Norfolk, VA;
- Charleston, SC;
- Jacksonville, FL;
- Miami, FL;
- Mobile, AL;
- New Orleans, LA; and
- Houston, TX
“Eight coastal cities at high flood risk where New York City has the largest population at risk (General Flood Damage: 4.75 million; Extreme Flood Damage: 4.40 million) and New Orleans City has the highest relative exposure (~99% under both),” the study said. “Coastal flood risk is greatest in low-lying, densely developed urban areas with high drainage density. Overall, this scalable framework offers actionable insights for policy-makers to manage floods in other flood-prone regions.”
Aside from climate change, the high risk for these cities, according to the study, have to do with a number of variables including “elevation, drainage density, population density, precipitation, building height, and distance from rivers and the coast.”
Just how severe has flooding become in the United States? According to data from the Emergency Events Database cited in the study published, between 1900 and 2021, 7 million deaths were reported as a result of flooding, which has affected 38 million people and seen $1.3 trillion in damages, which is no surprise given that flooding is the costliest natural disaster costing billions in damage and agricultural losses.
“Researchers project that by, 2050, sea levels along US coastlines will rise by 0.25 to 0.3 m, increasing the risk of severe flooding in major coastal cities,” according to the study. “Along the US Gulf and Atlantic Coasts, hurricane-induced flood risks are increasing due to sea level rise, threatening the coastal population and infrastructure. Now, about 30% of counties along the USGAC are at high flood risk, with low resilience and high social vulnerability and the risk is projected to be elevated in the future.”
According to the non-profit Environmental Defense Fund, climate change has impacted the moisture in the air and subsequently precipitation and land absorption — all which play a part in floods.
“Every 1 degree F rise in temperature can mean 4% more water vapor in the air. And since average surface temperature was more than 2 degrees F warmer in 2020 than it was a hundred years ago, there can be nearly 9% more moisture in the air — and clouds,” the EDF said.
“Recent research shows that in the future, hot, wet conditions (as opposed to hot, dry conditions) are expected to be more common. Heatwaves occurring before heavy rain will dry out the soil, making it less able to absorb water when it rains, increasing the likelihood of flooding.”
Meanwhile NASA reports that between 1980-2024, flooding cost the United States more than $200 billion with an average of $4.5 billion per flood. According to the agency, the frequency and severity of floods have changed as rainfall levels have also shifted, citing a study by the U.S. Geological Survey and Vienna University that revealed that floods have become more frequent in the New England region since the 1940s. This same study in “the severity and duration of flood events.”
NASA research also found that the number of people worldwide living in flood-prone areas increased by 20% to 24% since 2000 — a rate 10 times greater than what previous models had predicted given that “climate change drives extreme rainfall, rising sea levels and more intense hurricanes.”
Through its research, the First Street Foundation predicts a “significant” flood risk increase within the next 30 years for the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and a “large” jump in risk for the northwestern U.S.
So what can be done to mitigate the flood risks in certain places?
Because housing continues to be built in flood-risk areas, the Environmental Defense Fund says it is imperative “to make accurate, up-to-date flood-risk information widely available to help people avoid flood-prone areas — and provide more government planning and funding for community recovery when disaster strikes.”
Additionally, residents in flood risk areas have also called for better infrastructure, including drainage systems.
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