The latest forecast models are in, and it shows the New York City area getting hit by another weekend winter storm that is shaping up to be a classic nor-easter.
Winter storm watches were issued for the city and nearly all of the surrounding area, including neighboring counties in New Jersey, Long Island, the Hudson Valley and along coastal Connecticut.
Forecasts now show up to a foot of snow expected for the five boroughs, along with central Jersey and Nassau County on Long Island. Totals may be a little lower farther north and west, with the Hudson Valley, North Jersey and Connecticut in the 5-8 inch range.
Some farther east on Long Island and down the Jersey Shore could see more than a foot of snow before the storm is over.
Additionally, winds will gust between 30-50 mph during the storm, so blowing snow will be a problem.
So what changed? Models that previously showed the system farther offshore (like the European model) moved Friday morning, showing it hugging the coastline more. That is closer to the forecast predicted by the American model, which had been very aggressive on snow for the past day or so.
The storm comes as a result of an area of low pressure currently over California that will traverse the country and move off the North Carolina coast Sunday. As it moves into the Atlantic, the low will strengthen and the tri-state area will pick up light to moderate snow and gusty northeast winds beginning Sunday afternoon.
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What we know:
We know that an area of low pressure currently over California will traverse the country and move off the North Carolina coast on Sunday. As it moves into the Atlantic, the low will strengthen and the tri-state area will pick up light to moderate snow and gusty northeast winds beginning Sunday afternoon.
The American and European forecast models – two of the long-range models we rely on heavily for extended outlooks – are pretty consistent up to that point, with the low pressure area setting just off the Carolina Coast by early Sunday afternoon.
Stay with Storm Team 4 through the weekend as we fine-tune the forecast for you.
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