For the first time in more than a decade, NOAA is calling for a below-average hurricane season.
NOAA released its forecast for the Atlantic Thursday morning, predicting eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes.
The last time NOAA predicted a below-average season was 2015. That year, there was a “Super El Niño” – when ocean temperatures in the Pacific were more than 2 degrees Celsius above average.
Pacific water temperatures aren’t there yet, but are already running warm and will continue to rise through the season.
We normally think about warm ocean temperatures as fuel for hurricanes. That’s true if they’re in the same ocean. But an El Niño is warm water in the Pacific, which for the Atlantic has the impact of creating winds that tear up hurricanes before they can form.
NOAA nailed that 2015 forecast, with only 11 named storms – and since then, they’ve been about 80% accurate in their predictions.
Right now, there’s no way to predict where storms will make landfall (if at all) before they even form. But, if you’re wondering what to expect in the tri-state, there’s about a 15% chance historically of landfall on the East Coast –- and about a 20% chance in the Gulf.
But, as we always say, it only takes one.
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